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Q&A

How can I avoid a predictable plot?

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When writing a novel, authors generally don't want the reader to know how things will end. This is especially true of mystery novels, but obviously applies to any creative story. (A few stories show the end, and then the main question is how that end was achieved. However, the principle of keeping the reader in the dark remains the same.)

For this reason, avoiding a predictable plot is a good thing. You don't want to start setting things up, and then have the reader say to himself: 'Yep, I know how this is going to end.' This question is about how you can avoid creating such a predictable plot.

Here's an example which I recently thought of: Assume I'm writing a fantasy novel which takes place on an isolated island in the middle of the ocean. An amnesia-stricken newcomer arrives in the only village on the island, and quickly learns that life there revolves around escaping the island. The only way to escape the island is by defeating the evil monster keeping everyone from leaving. However, no one has yet been able to slay the monster.

You might not know exactly how, but you can tell that the amnesia-stricken newcomer is going to be the one who kills the monster and frees the people. The story will probably even end with them sailing off into the sunset. Forgetting the cliches for the moment, the plot is easy to predict.

Question: How can I avoid creating such a plot? Or if I have a predictable plot, as in the example above, how can I fix it? Are there simple steps or methods I can follow?

Note: Obviously all readers expect the good guy to win and the conflict to be resolved. That goes without saying. This question goes beyond that, referring to the times when the reader can list things which he knows will happen by the end of the book. It's more than knowing that the good guy will win. It's knowing how he'll win.


One method I've seen used is to establish a predictable plot or plot point, and then do the opposite, only to turn back at the last second. You still end up where the reader expected though, so this doesn't really solve the problem. It simply arrives at the expected outcome through unexpected methods.

An example is The Hunger Games. In the beginning of the first book, we all expect Katniss to enter the Hunger Games. She does, but only after Prim is chosen instead of her. We weren't expecting that, but she still ends up where we knew she would.

As I said, I don't see this as really solving the problem.


Note: Not a duplicate of this question. That question refers more to genre conventions, while this question deals with plot, and keeping the ending hidden from the reader until the last moment.

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6 answers

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How can I avoid a predictable plot?

Don't plan the storyline.

If the writer doesn't know then how can the readers? (Only if the writer's thinking is predictable, not a savoury answer sure.)

Have a read of this blogpost on writersdigest.com, it'll push your boundaries if you let it. Paradox:

In storytelling, what will happen informs what is happening, and what is happening informs what did. You cannot know where a story needs to go until you know where it’s been, but you cannot know where it needs to have been until you know where it’s going.

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The kind of terms in which I'd phrase what you're asking (and which you may find in searches elsewhere) is that: the story's climax must resolve the problem which was established in the inciting incident. So, yes, to be a satisfactory story, with a setup like that, it's probably going to need to end up with the hero/heroine defeating the monster and escaping the island. That's true (otherwise, why are the monster and the island in the story at all?).

However, the interesting part of a story, many would say, isn't what happens, that's just a list of events and not interesting at all; it's what the characters learn from that. (Perhaps even, what the reader learns from that). So... the hero/heroine kills the monster but escapes the island. So far, so predictable. But:

  • Do they do so as glorious conquerors, the other villagers escaping with them, with the hero having learned their own strength? (If you were watching a Disney movie, you could place a bet on this. Are you writing a Disney movie?)
  • Do they kill the monster but the villagers all die - the hero escaped, but only at great cost, having learned what price they are prepared to pay for their own freedom?
  • Do they sacrifice themselves to let the villagers escape while the monster is distracted - having learned that the greatest good for the greatest number is more important than personal success?
  • Do they find a way to signal for help killing the monster from those living on nearby islands, having learned that nobody can succeed in life alone?
  • Do they escape, only to learn that they (and all the villagers) were sent there as punishment for some crime that their amnesia had forgotten; they learn that understanding context is important before taking action?

So that's at least five different ways that the predictable "hero escapes island" ending can vary quite significantly.

But actually... do they escape, after all? The problem presented by the inciting incident needs to be resolved, but there's no law to say it has to be resolved positively.

  • Do they choose to remain on the island, having learned that being content with what you have is worth more than some unknown glory that's always over the horizon?
  • Are they killed by the monster, having failed to learn that the self-doubt and angst which the monster metaphorically represents is holding them back?

And what about the other things you mention in the setup?

  • Why does the newcomer have amnesia? What is it that he's forgotten? Was the memory taken from him - or has he suppressed something in his own past?
  • Why does this entire island of villagers have a life that "revolves around" trying to escape? They have a perfectly good village, large enough to support them - why leave at all?
  • What is the monster? Why is it there? Who put it there? If they leave it alone for a while instead of trying to escape, will it get hungry and swim away to another island? A monster is never just a monster - for what is it a metaphor (fear, selfishness, greed, old age, justice, injustice, vengeance, ...) and how does that affect how the hero fights it?

The answers to those questions could be surprising and could keep the reader interested to the end.

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Characters should view the narrative from the present, a good way to keep the reader in the dark about the future of the story is to present a first person narrative and have the reader only know what the character does about the situation. This may not keep the reader from predicting the plot but it will keep the reader from knowing the details too early in the proceedings.

But you don't need an unpredictable plot, it's about the journey not the destination, you can tell a highly compelling story even if the shape of the story is evident from the very beginning, and in fact pointed out repeatedly throughout the narrative. I'm rereading The Sword of the Lady at the moment, it's part of a seven book series with the same protagonist. The plot is laid out before the first book starts in the epilogue of the final book of the preceding trilogy and reiterated repeatedly in each of the seven novels and yet the story is hard to put down all the same.

Also remember that as much as you might try you can never hide everything from everyone, humans are really good at initiative leaps. People can and do put very little evidence together to make surprisingly accurate pictures of the whole story. Trying to hide the plot of the story can in fact put people off reading the tale as a whole if it feels like you are deliberately twisting an otherwise straightforward tale.

As a note "Obviously all readers expect the good guy to win and the conflict to be resolved. That goes without saying." No, just no, don't insult your audience with that kind of thinking; there are many narratives where the "good guys" lose, or turn out to be the bad guys and win anyway and many more where there is no actual resolution, and certainly nothing so straightforward.

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Things are not as they seem. Time and again.

What you present to the MC is not what it seems to be. It requires your imagination to figure why it isn't. You can conceive of a problem: Then try to imagine a way what looks like a problem is NOT, or is actually an opportunity, or is actually the way things should be.

The monster is not a monster. Or it is a monster, but the real problem lies elsewhere.

Alternatively, think of the real problem, and then think of how that might present itself as a different problem, which is what your MC sets out to solve.

Always keep in mind the reasons things stay hidden: Subterfuge. Betrayal. Treason. Misunderstanding, disbelief that something could be true, or misplaced trust. Jumping to conclusions. Secrets, secrets, secrets.

For example, the monster is a dragon, and really is trying to kill the villagers. But the villagers have a secret: They started this war, taking the dragon's egg and selling it for gold. They know exactly why it is attacking them but they aren't talking about it, they are just trying to get this stranger (the MC) to risk his life for the glory of killing the dragon.

Now the dragon is hunting them, intent on revenge and torturing them to try and find out where her egg is, she only lays one per century. By mid-novel, the mission isn't exactly about defeating and killing the dragon at all. In fact the MC may ally himself WITH the dragon, and set out to find the stolen egg.

Then of course, for Act III, the dragon as his ally helps the MC recover his memory. Because the dragon has a secret, too: She is the one that took his memory away.

But now, he has shown bravery and loyalty and true friendship, and has led them to a battle they may well lose. She decides she won't let him risk death under false pretenses. She is a moral dragon. She restores his memory so he can make an informed choice.

And something about knowing who he really is (perhaps the person that stole the egg, or traded it, or maybe he was involved after the egg was stolen, or is related to the king that bought it, so he knows how to circumvent the castle defense) finally allows them to complete the mission without dying.

And the MC is a changed person, he no longer misunderstands dragons, in fact, despite her subterfuge (which he understands and forgives), a dragon has become his best friend.

Now there are holes in that plot, but they can be patched. Figure out who the MC really is, what secret information he might have to get them out of their final dilemma. Figure out how the dragon knew to take him, in particular. How did he figure out the villagers were keeping a secret, and then discover the truth? How did he come to meet the dragon and become her ally in her search?

But this is the general approach: Something is not as it seems. Your MC truly does not understand the problem at all, at first. He thinks he does, but he's got things backwards, sideways, and upside down. You have to figure out why, and (like I just did) sketch a series of three or four of these secrets that act as your turning points in the story, at (very roughly) the 25%, 50%, and 75% and 90% marks. That is the end of ACT I, middle and end of ACT II, and the final piece of the puzzle late in Act III that leads to the finale (last 10% of your story) and conclusion.


Edit: So, if you thought the hero would kill the monster and free the people, you are wrong. Not only does the monster not get killed, but becomes his friend. The people may or may not be freed, or perhaps they must pay for their crime by returning the gold, before the dragon will let them leave. Maybe they need that gold to work the hero's plan. There may be escape and life for the villagers, but there is no happily-ever-after for those thieves. Even the hero is not what you thought he was, this becomes a redemption story for a hero that was actually a villain that helped cause the problem he eventually solves.

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One way of going "off the rails" not yet mentioned here is to actually embrace the predictable plot, and then go past it. With your setup, of course the hero is going to defeat the monster. Let that happen by the end of act 1. What happens next? How does the village respond to not having a monster caging them any longer?

@Amadeus says: something about the problem is not as it seems. (And I couldn't agree more, but I've got to add something of my own, right?) I say: the consequences of solving the problem are not what they were expected to be. It might well be that the consequences are not what they should be because the problem wasn't what the reader thought it was. But the perspective is different: having passed the expected end, you are already "off the rails". Anything that you do from this point forwards would be unexpected.

My favourite example of this technique is the Russian play The Dragon by Evgeny Schwarts. End of Act 1, Lancelot slays a dragon that terrorises a village, and saves the girl who was supposed to be sacrificed to the dragon.

Then in Act 2 it turns out that the villagers are so accustomed to living under a dictator, they don't know how to function without one - they don't know how to be free. So the burgomaster takes the role previously occupied by the dragon, and the girl whose life Lancelot saved is now forced to marry the burgomaster.

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Sometimes a predictable plot is not a bad thing. If you choose to go ahead with it, you can still shake things up.

Take something like the modern movie Titanic. We already know the boat is going to sink. And that most of the people will not survive. We know why the boat sunk. We even know a fair number of details because these stories are in our cultural lore (in the US anyway).

It's a true story but the main characters are completely fictional. The instant they meet we know it's going to be a love story, specifically a story of people from different worlds falling in love against all odds. And we'd know that even if the trailers and ads for the movie didn't drum it into our heads.

What we don't know is how they'll react when the ship is sinking. We don't know if they help save people or if they doom them. We can guess they find each other in the madness, but we don't know how. We don't know if they escape the boat or not.

Most importantly, we have no idea if they live or die. We become invested in those characters and root for them and are on the edges of our seats (if the movie did its job) wanting to know the outcome.

Because the outcome isn't "the boat sank." It's "did Rose and Jack live?"

So, sure, turn your story on its head. There are dozens of ways to do that. But even if you don't, you can still make it a story people want to read.

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