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Close. Part of the process of evolution is that it doesn't happen once, but repeatedly over a long period of time, and that "falling through a particular hole" allows something beneficial to happen...
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#2: Initial revision
Close. Part of the process of evolution is that it doesn't happen once, but repeatedly over a long period of time, and that "falling through a particular hole" allows something beneficial to happen later on (reproduction and thereby continuance of the species). If the pebble doesn't fall through the hole, you have to explain what bad thing would happen. And once the pebble is through the hole, something else needs to occur so that the cycle can repeat, and the next pebble is better-suited to do the next thing, whatever it is. What you've described is the beginning of natural selection, but you haven't completed the analogy.