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@gravity_train has it correct in the comment above: a plot twist is unbelievable if it comes from absolutely nowhere. A plot development, twist, and/or character action is unbelievable if it ...
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#4: Attribution notice removed
Source: https://writers.stackexchange.com/a/21170 License name: CC BY-SA 3.0 License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/
#3: Attribution notice added
Source: https://writers.stackexchange.com/a/21170 License name: CC BY-SA 3.0 License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/
#2: Initial revision
@gravity\_train has it correct in the comment above: > a plot twist is unbelievable if it comes from absolutely nowhere. A plot development, twist, and/or character action is unbelievable if it seems _arbitrary._ If there is no evidence, no foreshadowing, no hints, no clues, absolutely _nothing_ a reader could have picked up, even on a second reading/viewing, to point to the action or event, then it shatters the "willing suspension of disbelief" which a reader must have to embark on a story. A meta example of this is the satirical film _Murder by Death._ Parody versions of a group of famous literary detectives are invited to a mansion to solve a murder mystery in exchange for $1 million. At the end of the film, all the detectives assemble and one after another accuse one character of committing the murder(s). But the character stands up and snipes at all of them: > You've all been so clever for so long you've forgotten to be humble. You've tricked and fooled your readers for years. You've tortured us with surprise endings that made no sense. You've introduced characters at the end that weren't in the book before! You've withheld clues and information that made it impossible for us to guess who did it. Additionally, when a character acts "out of character" by doing something without any kind of motive, or acting against what's been established for the character previously, without explanation, the audience loses belief. "Without explanation" is the important part — over the years of _Star Trek_, Vulcans (who are presented as logical, stoical, and generally imperturbable) have laughed, wept, danced, screamed, and raged, but all _believably_, because the script made a point of explaining why the Vulcan in question was behaving that way.