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Source: https://writers.stackexchange.com/a/25015
License name: CC BY-SA 3.0
License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/

Source: https://writers.stackexchange.com/a/25015
License name: CC BY-SA 3.0
License URL: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/

It does not matter if the reader expects them to die or not, it matters if they care whether they die or not. Suspense is not mathematical in nature, it is moral. It is not about how likely an event is, but how much you care about it.

Every character should have an arc. That is, they should want something that is realistic in the world of your story and they should be acting in a realistic way to get it. Without an arc, they are throwaway characters. They are red shirts whose only function is to demonstrate that the situation is dangerous by dying in Act 1. You know they are going to die as soon as Kirk sends them to investigate something stage left, and you don't care because they have no arc.

If a character has a arc, however, they do not seem throwaway, even if the author knows they are doomed. If the reader gets invested in them, they are not expecting them to die casually, and they are moved when the death occurs. If the reader cares about a death, it does not matter how surprising or how predictable it is. The reader still cares. The unanticipated death of characters they don't care about means nothing to the reader. The anticipated death of a character they do care about means everything.

Original score: 8