How do I avoid tech/social errors in near-future fiction?

The web has lots of research trade e-zines, with articles written by and for laymen, that would help you. Then there are magazines like Popular Science and Popular Mechanics. Also magazines like Scientific American, Science News, Science Daily, and Wired Science. Omni magazine is coming back, supposedly. Also, go to a book store, find books by Alvin Toffler, and closely-related books.

It's not hard to predict (in general terms) the future of technology 10 or even 20 years out, if you're paying attention. Things often take 10~20 years to go from lab bench to store shelf. Where it gets hard is 30~40 years out, because some of the discoveries have not yet been made.

posted about 11 years ago

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dmm‭

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Consider general problems/trends/concepts instead of specific realizations/models, then think up techs that resolve/accentuate the general ideas you started with.

^{Techs here don't have to be electronic. Anything that has a clear method/blueprint is a tech to me. So, a government, a math theorem, a tablet, a pen and a paper, a template of anything, a human language, a programming language, and so on and so forth, are all techs as far as I'm concerned. Although I'm sure I'm butchering the definition of the word right now--apologies.}

So instead of "cell-phones", think "easy communication". Radio waves were already being utilized for radio/TV and various military uses. Sure it'd be desirable to have the hassle-free (physically, no wires and all) way of radio communication be more accessible. Now, how does it become available? Is it an offshoot from a high-budget military project? The brainchild of a mad scientist? How would it be different in either case (or in others)?

Notice, I didn't say "imagine its final look and function". I said, "get the general concept, think up/find sources that could help make it real," and then, "see how it'd differ, being the result of these different beginnings, each considered in isolation or close pairs".

In other words, don't pick a reference frame, just keep jumping and paint a fuzzy as fuzzy can be mental map of the relations between the different ways to realize your conceptual tech in the real world, as it is considered from the different perspectives of different beginning points.

So, instead of little note-pad-sized screens with keys, cell-phones could have started off as a sort of portable communications portal,still reliant on central com-stations? Like, a bracelet that lets the wearer access a phone-box (small ones, that are themselves wireless, but bigger than modern mobiles), the bracelet being his number. Or maybe it began with text messaging, and that became cell-phones' dominant use afterwards. Sure, it sounds ridiculous to us, but I'd have no problem believing it, considering the different origin stories of the concept and its realization (though I haven't talked yet about origin stories for concepts, that's to come).

So, let's take a modern example... Let me know in the comments which you prefer:

1. Trans-humanism;

   I pick trans-humanism. Expect an edit soon-ish.

2. Global communications, AIs and virtual reality;

   This would be more difficult than I'm willing to handle. Fair warning, Matrix and like-minded movies aren't good examples here. A better one would be the Riverworld series, which is still far off the mark.

3. Space travel and inter-planetary -stellar colonization.

   See the manga/anime Planetes. It handles this quite nicely and is fairly accurate as to what we can do in the present and what we strongly suspect we'll be able to do in the near future. The story takes place around 2075, so it's a 'future on the doorstep'. I'll try to find a work where society is more significantly different from now.

Be warned, however, that I'm not even a 'respectable amateur' in any of these subjects. So my detailed example would be quite a bit detached from the latest in the fields. After it's posted and judged, tell me whether it's yeah, urgh, or please no. I'll try to explain it in a more abstract manner

_{That wasn't as detailed as I'd hoped I could make it. For now I'll ask you to accept it as is... Let's see if I don't botch it up in a later edit ;)}

posted about 11 years ago

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Mussri‭

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