Is an easily guessed plot twist a good plot twist?
In my post-apocalyptic novel, there are two "twists", but they're mostly tied up in each other. The first is that humans have developed different kinds of kineses, like hydrokinesis, telekinesis, and so on. The second is that the MC, Eris, has finékinesis, the ability to manipulate death, and she killed innocent people with that power. Eris has blocked out the memories of these events.
Since Eris is my MC and my narrator, the reader discovers alongside her in real time and through her diary entries that she killed people, but I do not explicitly state it until the rest of the characters find out. The characters (other than Eris) are also unaware of Eris' actions, although the antagonist is suspicious. It's pretty clear to the reader, however, from the get-go that Eris has done something bad, and when deaths are mentioned, the reader can easily infer that she was the killer.
What I'm asking is, is a plot twist still a "twist" if my reader knows it? Are plot twists for the reader or for the characters, or both? I don't want to outsmart my reader by making some bizarre plot twist that they never would have guessed and therefore make it unfeasible. But if my readers guess it early, have I "ruined" my twist and/or my plot?
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Is a plot twist still a "twist" if my reader knows it?
It is not a surprise, but it is still a twist. Readers can only guess at things, they cannot know anything for certain until they have read it. They may feel certain of something, but it can still be satisfying to have their suspicions confirmed.
Are plot twists for the reader or for the characters, or both? I don't want to outsmart my reader by making some bizarre plot twist that they never would have guessed and therefore make it unfeasible.
Everything you write is for the reader, but readers do identify with, sympathize with, or dislike or hate characters. The emotional connections to these imaginary characters (positive or negative) going through these imaginary events are the whole ballgame, it is why we read, to have you (the author) assist our imaginations.
If the reader finds a plot twist ridiculous, then you haven't done your job. But a plot twist that makes sense in retrospect can delight the reader, especially if the whole story makes more sense by adding this missing piece of the puzzle. Like the twist at the end of The Sixth Sense, nobody I know saw that one coming, but everyone I know thought it was a fantastic twist: A dozen elements of the story that seemed "atmospheric" or character quirks at the time were suddenly meaningful and in sharp focus.
But if my readers guess it early, have I "ruined" my twist and/or my plot?
You haven't ruined your plot; a guess is just a guess, and the triumphant moment of "I knew it! I frikkin' knew it!" can be an enjoyable moment to give the reader.
If you realize now that this is what you are going to do, that you cannot hide the twist, then you can enhance that moment with escalating brinkmanship; go back and engineer your hints so they are increasingly (on the scale of very vague to very clearly) suggesting the twist, without actually letting the reader know. You can keep the character in the dark, so the moment of the reveal is still emotional for the character, but the emotion is different for the reader, like watching a super-slow motion car wreck:
- They suspect what is going to happen,
- Then feel certain it is going to happen,
- Then dread what is about to happen,
- Then it happens. BAM!
IN other words, if you don't think you can make the twist invisible until the reveal (like The Sixth Sense), then don't try; allow the reader to guess it, just make sure you don't provide them any concrete proof; find ways to always smudge the picture so the reader may suspect but cannot be certain.
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I'm going with a frame challenge.
Not all reveals are a "twist"
A twist is new information that changes the meaning of earlier events. This is done by writing 2 plots with the same events. The MC believes the 1st plot until the twist when the 2nd plot is revealed as the true version of events. Readers should be able to re-read the story knowing the twist, and everything still makes sense (lines will have double meanings, motives are misinterpreted, etc).
To make this reveal be a twist, the story needs to make us believe that someone else murdered Eris' family. Maybe Eris believes she will find evidence this other person is the killer in the diary.
(I don't think this is the set up in your story, and I'm not trying to re-write it.)
It's a character's "truth"
What you have is more like a character struggling to face their own truth, and in most stories the protagonist will be the last to know, or the last to accept it. This "truth" has been the thing they've avoided. A friend tells them but that stirs conflict and triggers psychological defenses. The storyworld points them to this conclusion, but part of the MC's struggle is that they don't want this truth – it's painful.
The reader needs to understand this truth at least few steps ahead of the character so we can know what's at stake, and what is motivating the MC's behavior. It is a kind of mystery, but it's more of an emotional, character-oriented mystery. The feeling should be more like "What has wounded this person to make them be this way?", not so much a Mission Impossible, pull-off-the-rubber-mask, "And you never suspected it was me! Hahaha!"
TL;DR
I think you're going for an emotionally vulnerable moment where the protagonist faces her demons, not a "omg-wtf I never saw THAT coming…" plot twist.
A "truth" reveal and a "twist" reveal would probably happen at the same point in the story but they are tonally different and move the story in very different directions. One emphasizes character growth, probably the climax of an emotional arc. The other fakes at being character growth but then throws all that emo stuff in the waste bin and introduces a new villain to chase for the last act.
This post was sourced from https://writers.stackexchange.com/a/46834. It is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0.
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Balance is key
There is a very delicate balance between a plot twist that feels contrived and unrealistic and one that the reader can see coming from a mile away. There is no exact correct answer to this, and a lot of it comes down to execution rather than one being strictly better than the other.
Personally as a reader I hate nothing more than knowing what is going to be on the next page before I have even read it. If your plot twist is so apparent to the reader, it will be boring when you reveal it. Don't be predictable, a plot twist should be a twist.
My next biggest pet-peeve is plots that don't make sense. If it feels unrealistic, it breaks the readers' suspension of disbelief and will disconnect them from your writing. Make sure your plot has internal logical consistency. Plot twists don't occur for the sake of the twist, but because it makes sense for the characters.
Here is an example of a very well known plot twist, and one that I consider one of the best executed plot twists I have read (from A Song of Ice and Fire by G.R.R. Martin):
The Red Wedding scene is the perfect example of a well executed plot twist. When we read it for the first time it is utterly unexpected and brutal. However, it also makes perfect sense for the characters involved.
Every character behaves in a way that is logically consistent with their portrayal up to that point. In hindsight we can see all the foreshadowing and build up to the scene. We should have seen it coming but we didn't. In my view that is what makes a brilliant plot twist.
If I could tell you how to reliably achieve this, I would be a best-selling author myself, so I can only give you encouragement. Practice, write multiple versions, find the balance between a non-nonsensical twist and one that can be easily guessed. If you can achieve it, congratulations, you've done something that most authors can only dream of. Good luck.
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